Leap forward in Space Weather forecast: Novel prediction of large energetic solar flares
Marianna Korsós
Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth, United Kingdom
The interaction of solar activity with the Earth's atmosphere occurs
through a complex series of events called Space Weather. The main
quest of solar activity research is to understand clearly the causes
and dynamics of Space Weather phenomena in order to protect mankind
and our sophisticated technological systems that might be at
considerable risk from high-speed charged particles blowing often
abruptly off the Sun.
First, we present a brief overview of Space Weather research and
outline the current state-of-the-art. Next, we address newly
discovered pre-flare behavioural patterns of the solar active regions
by focusing on their evolution with different morphological
parameters. Finally, we address how the morphological parameters can
be generalised and applied in 3D suitable to model the lower solar
atmosphere. We will demonstrate how can we even further increase the
capability of the flare onset time prediction in the solar atmosphere
with our approach using a 3D extension of the method. A new result is
the improvement of the flare prediction window prior to the flare
onset time.
